Australia in 2034: What will our nation look like in 20 years?

Thursday, September 11, 2014

By 2034 Australia will have 33 million people and the dream of owning that quarter acre block will be nearly gone. What will Australia look like, how is our workforce changing, will households be smaller and will we recognise this new version of the ‘Aussie Dream’?

Mark McCrindle addresses these issues on a recent segment of Channel 7’s Morning Show. Australia is currently the fastest growing OECD nation and in 20 years time we will have an additional 10 million people calling Australia home. “It’s going to continue to boom, “ Mark says. “We are adding almost a million people every 2 years. And we are the fastest growing developed nation on the planet at the moment.”

Whilst a population boom brings the bonus of size, economies of scale and diversity in our cultural makeup it can also have negative impacts. The pain will be felt in rising house prices, traffic congestion and increased waiting time for public services. The increase in housing density will mean that the vast expanse of the Australian outback will remain virtually as it is but the major cities will continue to expand, particularly upwards, with more people living in apartments than ever before. The cherished Aussie dream of the quarter acre block will be gone, replaced by new land release block sizes which currently average 423 square metres or a tenth of an acre block.

Just as the population will grow larger it will also get older with more people aged over 85 years than ever before. People are living longer and living alone for longer, leading to an increase in at home care and multi-generational households. The rise in house prices coupled with an ageing population will see many families living living together with mum and dad caring for their own children as well as for their ageing parents. Mark explains, “We’ve been on this trend of smaller households for a century. We had 4.5 people per household 100 years ago. Now we are at 2.6 but we’ve turned the corner and we’ve got slightly larger households now, not that we are having more kids, just that we have more people under the one roof because of housing affordability.”

‘Density’ will be the word to describe Australia in 2034. More people will be living in more households on smaller bocks of land with more houses and apartments per square kilometre. There will be more people but fewer people of working age relative to the growing population. Mark says, “We are going to have older workers – the population is growing, Australia is going through a baby boom and people are living linger. Yet the working age proportion is not keeping pace with that population growth. So now we’ve got about 5 people for every retiree but in 40 years time we’ll have about half that – 2.7 people of working age for every retiree”. As a result people will be working longer with many not retiring until well into their 70’s! However, life expectancy at birth will be almost 90 by then.

Australia will be bigger, older, denser and even more multicultural in 20 years time! Some ‘Aussie Dreams’ will have disappeared such as the ‘quarter acre block’ and along with it the Hills Hoist garden shed and enough space for a game of backyard cricket. But no doubt new ‘Aussie Dreams’ will come to replace them – it is the Lucky Country after all!

Next Gen Dads: Parenting Screenagers and Digital Natives

Thursday, September 04, 2014

More Dads Than Ever

1 in 5 Australians are dads. There are approximately 4.6 million fathers in Australia, with an estimated 2.2 million of these have children aged under 18. The median age of a first-time dad today is 31, so today’s emerging generation of dads are Gen Yers.

New Record Baby Boom

We are currently experiencing a baby boom in Australia, with birth numbers setting new records and exceeding 310,000 per year. This means that Gen Y will produce more children than any previous generation in Australia’s history. While the number of children per Gen Y family is significantly less than that of their grandparents (in 1961 the total fertility rate hit 3.5 births per woman), Generation Y parents are having more parents per couple than Generation X did. When Generation X were in their peak fertility years (turning 31 in 2001), this coincided with the very year Australia hit its lowest birth rate ever recorded in Australia (1.7). Now as Generation Y are reaching their peak fertility years we have a birth rate significantly higher, hovering around 2.0.

Introducing Generation Alpha

These Gen Y parents are giving birth to Generation Alpha – the cohort born since 2010. Generation Alpha are not only going to be the largest generation Australia has ever seen, but also the most globally connected, technologically savvy and materially endowed. Generation Y are delaying the traditional life markers, commencing their families in their 30s (compared to previous generations who did so in their 20s) so not only do they have many more years of earnings before they start their families, but they are also more likely to be double income households.

Parenting Screenagers

Generation Alpha are the first generation of children to be shaped in an era of portable digital devices, and for many, the pacifiers have not been a rattle or set of keys but a smartphone or tablet device. A key role of fathers has always been to create a safe and supportive environment in which their children can thrive and these days this involves more than providing a physically secure home but also a cybersafe home. 96% of households with children having internet access and Gen Alpha are using personal digital devices at an ever younger age. However, Generation Y parents have been shaped in the digital world and so are better equipped to respond to new parenting challenges of managing cyberbullying, watching out for screen addiction, and ensuring child-friendly content.

The Modern Dad

Our past research has found that Generation Y dads are not as competent and confident as their fathers were to change the oil in their car, repair a punctured bicycle tyre or fix a leaky tap, but in many ways, in an outsourcing era they’re able to buy replacements or outsource those services and they don’t need to do all those things themselves. Why they may have lost some of these traditional skills, they have picked up some new ones. Our research showed they are far more likely to be confident in changing a baby’s nappy, doing a grocery shop, buying clothes for their children and cooking a meal for their family.

Busier Than Ever

If fathers are feeling busier than ever, that’s because they are. The labour force participation rate shows that almost 4 in 5 fathers with dependent children participate in the labour force, with more than half of them working full time (an average of 7 hours 25 minutes per day) and yet at the same time, those with children aged under 15 are spending more time with their children, averaging 3 hours and 55 minutes per day. Additionally, almost half of all dads with kids aged up to 17 years old are also volunteering (46%), dads with full-time jobs are spending around 80 minutes a day on domestic work. So there’s little surprise that over a third of Australian men (34.9%) say that they always or often feel rushed or pressed for time, and 1 in 6 (16.3%) feel that their work and family responsibilities are rarely or never in balance.

Next Generation Parents

In the year that the oldest Gen Ys first became fathers in record numbers (2010), the iPad entered the market, “app” was the word of the year and Instagram was launched. Clearly they are parenting in a very different era to any other generation and will be facing new challenges never seen before.

The Future of Fresh: Transforming the fresh food landscape into 2034

Monday, August 25, 2014

Woolworths recently commissioned McCrindle to paint a picture of how Australia will be shopping in 20 years time through the use of demographic data, future forecasting, and new research among supermarket shoppers.

The Future of Fresh report reveals the way Australians will shop in 2034, focusing on the predicted purchasing habits of emerging Generation Alpha, new approaches to fresh food and a shift in the perception of our sense of what is local.

Gen Alpha will respond to a whole new set of influences and trends to inform their shopping habits. They will team up with neighbours and friend to make shopping a social experience in which the supermarket becomes a hub for real world living.

As economic, population and technological growth continues, supermarkets will respond to the demand for new innovations and shopping will be transformed into a vastly different experience than what it is today. Within the next twenty years, the transformation of our lives through technology will have disrupted how we think about shopping, what we buy, and where and how we shop.

The report reveals a continuing shift towards fresh, hyper-local produce and the convergence of new technologies to make grocery shopping a more innovative and immersive experience. Australian shoppers will continue to demand a back-to-basics approach – food that is organic, local, fresh, and delivered daily.

Leading social researcher Mark McCrindle comments on the findings, stating, “The research reveals that supermarkets have emerged as the number 1 gathering place within most communities. Nearly 40% of Australians cite the local shopping centre as a hub and this will be even more the case as technology continues to facilitate interactions with those who live, shop or work near us.”

“68% of shoppers are actively seeking out products on discount and this will remain a priority in the store of the future, but the term ‘value’ will come to mean much more than just greater prices incorporating more ethical and lifestyle considerations, like sustainability, health benefits and giving back to the community.”

The research process was truly collaborative, Mark says. “It was exciting working with Woolworths Chair of Innovation, Professor Jan Recker, on this project, collating QUT research with our national survey into Australia’s current shopping habits alongside analysis of ABS and Woolworths data. The future will look very different for tomorrow’s supermarket shopper, and the Future of Fresh report presents just some of the major trends that will shape how we will engage with the foods we buy in the decades ahead.”

Read the Future of Fresh Report and the media release here


What comes after Generation Z? Introducing Generation Alpha

Friday, August 01, 2014

Gen Zeds are the most formally educated generation in Australian history – not only have they started their schooling younger, they are also projected to stay in it for longer. Whilst 1 in 10 of the Builders generation have a university degree, 1 in 5 Baby Boomers, 1 in 4 Generation Xers and 1 in 3 Gen Ys, it is projected that 1 in 2 Gen Zeds will be university educated. With the increased focus on formal education and the increased time spent behind screens and on digital devices, it is unsurprising that they live largely indoors; after all, their parents place priority on homework, coaching and extra-curricular activities over a carefree childhood. These sedentary lifestyles are having an impact on our Gen Zeds – based on the current trends, it is projected that in 2027, when all Gen Z have reached adulthood, 77.9% of males and 61.2% of females will be overweight or obese.

However when it comes to getting outdoors and getting active, Gen Zeds have their favourite sports – with Gen Z males top sports being soccer (17%), AFL (15%) and Basketball (10%), and for Gen Z females, their top sports are netball (21%), dance (15%) followed by swimming (9%).

The Zeds are up-ageing because they are growing up faster. In less than a century, the onset of puberty in girls has gone from 14.6 years (1920) to 10.5 years today, with the trend similar for boys, with puberty on setting before the age of 12. They are also in education earlier and are exposed to marketing younger. Despite the environmentally conscientious times, the Zeds are the most marketed-to children of all time and the biggest consumers of any generation of children.

This Internet-savvy, technologically literate generation has been shaped to multitask. They move quickly from one task to another, often placing more value on speed than accuracy. They have only known a wireless, hyperlinked, user-generated world where they are only ever a few clicks away from any piece of knowledge. The world is an open book to Gen Z.

Over the lifetime of a Gen Zed, technology has transformed our society. When the oldest Gen Zeds were 2 years of age in 1997, Google.com was registered as a domain, and when they turned 5, USB flash drives and Nokia 3310 mobile phones were on the market.

Here’s a summary technology timeline in the life of a Gen Z:

Technology Timeline 1995 to 2014

  • 1997: Google.com is registered as a domain
  • 1998: Portable MP3 players enter the market
  • 2000: USB flash drives become available, Nokia 3310 launched
  • 2001: Wikipedia is launched
  • 2003: MySpace is launched
  • 2005: YouTube is launched
  • 2006: Facebook opens to the public
  • 2006: Twitter is launched
  • 2007: Dropbox founded
  • 2007: First iPhone released
  • 2009: Whatsapp founded
  • 2010: iPad is launched
  • 2010: Instagram launched
  • 2012: Facebook has 1 billion active users
  • 2014: Google Glass launched

Gen Alpha

The launch of the iPad in 2010 coincided with the beginning of our current generation of children, Generation Alpha – and there are now 2.5 million Gen Alphas being born around the globe each week. They were born into a world of iPhones (in fact the word of the year in 2010 when they were first born was “app”), YouTube (there are now 100 hours of YouTube videos uploaded every minute, and in this environment they are more influenced by the visual and the video than the written and the verbal), and Instagram (where life is photographed and shared instantly and globally).

It’s a world where for the first time in history the average age of first marriage (29.7) is older than the average age of first birth (27.7) across OECD countries.

It’s a world of Screenagers where not only do they multi-screen and multi-task, but where glass has become the new medium for content dissemination and unlike the medium of paper, it is a kinaesthetic, visual, interactive, connective and portable format.

It’s truly the millennial generation, born and shaped fully in the 21st century, and the first generation that in record numbers will see in the 22nd century as well.

And that’s why we’ve called them Generation Alpha. And so, after Generations X, Y and Z, it’s not a return to the beginning but the start of a whole new nomenclature for an entirely new generation, in this new millennium.

See our latest infographic on Gen Z and Gen Alpha below. To find out more about these Generations, order your copy of Mark McCrindle's newly updated book, the ABC of XYZ


Population Growth, Boat Arrivals & Australia's Humanitarian Program

Monday, June 23, 2014

In June 2014 McCrindle analysed the data on population growth (ABS), migration numbers (Department of Immigration) and we hope the infographic below is useful for an understanding of the drivers behind Australia’s population growth.

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Australia’s Population Increase (last 12 months):

  • Australia’s annual growth rate is 1.8% which equates to 405,400 people over the last year. In 2008 net overseas migration was 459,904 (therefore population growth numbers in the last year were 54,504 less than they were 5 years ago). 
  • Annual growth is comprised of two factors: natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (permanent arrivals minus permanent departures). A permanent arrival is defined by someone living in Australia for 12 months or more (or 12 months over a 16 month period).  The same time frames apply to permanent departures. 
  • 59% of Australia’s population increase is through migration which was 241,000 people last year.  In 2008 net overseas migration was 315,700 which equates to 74,700 fewer last year than 5 years ago. 41% of Australia’s population growth was through natural increase which was 164,400 people.    
    • Natural increase: 164,400 (41% of population growth)
      • Births: 310,600
      • Deaths: 146,200
    • Net overseas migration: 241,000 (59% of population growth)
      • Arrivals: 511,600
      • Departures: 270,600
  • The net overseas migration rate for the last decade has been hovering around 1% per annum (that is, it is the equivalent of about 1% of our population while the natural increase is equivalent to about 0.8% to our population).
  • 42% of those migrating are given permanent visas which was 101,230 in the last year.  Therefore those given permanent visas account for 25% of Australia’s population growth.
  • Of the net overseas migration, 58% are granted temporary visas (students, working holiday makers, visitors staying 12 months or more, 457 work visas), and 42% are granted permanent visas (skilled, family and humanitarian).
  • 20% of these are part of Australia’s humanitarian program- a total of 19,930 (with the remainder being skilled visas, 43%, and family visas, 37%), and so Australia’s humanitarian program accounts for 5% of Australia’s growth.
  • Of the humanitarian visas, 63% are granted offshore (as part of the UNHCR program in operation, particularly in the Middle East, Africa and Asia), 12% are granted to existing visa holders who are already in Australia, and 25% are granted to people who have arrived into Australian territorial waters by boat and are processed in detention centres (a total of 4,949 in the last year).
  • Therefore asylum seekers account for 1.2% of Australia’s population growth.

Immigration Detention and Community Statistics Summary

As at 31 May 2014, there were 4016 people in immigration detention facilities, including 2779 in immigration detention on the mainland and 1237 in immigration detention on Christmas Island.

Of these people in detention, 89% had arrived by boat (3566 people).  The number in detention facilities currently is less than half the number that were in detention facilities a year ago (In May 2013 there were 8521). 

Boat Arrivals in Australia (Irregular Maritime Arrivals):

Here is a summary of the Boat Arrivals in Australia (Irregular Maritime Arrivals) over the last 10 years as provided by the Parliamentary Library:

Year Number of boats Number of people (excludes crew)
2005 4 11
2006 6 60
2007 5 148
2008 7 161
2009 60 2726
2010 134 6555
2011 69 4565
2012 278 17204
2013 300 20587
2014 (to 23.6.14) 0 0

Sources: Department of Immigration (immi.gov.au), Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au), Parliamentary Library, Parliament of Australia.

If every asylum seeker who arrived by boat since 2005 (52,017) was granted entry to Australia (and many have returned voluntarily, others have been deported, and still others are yet to have their cases determined), the total number when compared to Australia’s population growth over this 9.5 year period (3,514,300) would account for less than 1.5% of Australia’s population growth. So total arrivals by boat over almost 10 years is the equivalent of less than 9 weeks of Australian births.

Western Sydney: A Growth Story

Friday, June 13, 2014

Western Sydney is the fastest growing area in the largest state of the fastest growing country in the developed world! And the population of Western Sydney will exceed that of Eastern Sydney within 2 decades and at 2.1 million, is a population already larger than many countries.

It has a younger demographic than the rest of Sydney, with more home buyers, larger households and bigger homes than the national average. Here are the remarkable statistics of Western Sydney- a growth story!

Download Mark's McCrindle's latest presentation from the Western Sydney Business Connection presented on 12 June 2014 on the latest growth trends. 

Click here to download this file


Deaths & Funerals in Australia: A Statistical Snapshot

Saturday, May 31, 2014

Australian attitudes to funerals and death are changing. We perceive funerals with growing acceptance rather than resistance and are opting for relaxed and reflective funerals rather than solemn and serious ones. We are unlikely to pre-plan our funerals, and two thirds of us prefer cremation over burial.

In Australia the age of dying is increasing, with the highest number of deaths occurring in the 85 to 89 age bracket (comprising 1 in 5 of all deaths), and our life expectancy has risen to 82 years of age.

McCrindle was recently commissioned by the Australian Funeral Directors Association (AFDA) to gain on understanding of Australian perceptions towards funerals and deliver a statistical snapshot of death in Australia. Below is a brief synopsis, with expanded research results and demographic trends available for download in the Deaths and Funerals in Australia Research Summary.  

Death rates declining

While tax rates might be rising death rates in Australia are actually declining. Even though Australia’s population is larger than ever (23.5 million) and growing faster than ever (405,400 in the last year), Australia’s death rate continues to decline (6.5 deaths per 1,000, down from 6.9 a decade ago). Australia has more than twice as many births as deaths with more than 300,000 annual births and less than 150,000 annual deaths (147,098 in 2012).

Although more men die each year than women, (74,794 men in 2012, 72,304 women), the gap is decreasing from a decade ago when 107 men died for every 100 women, to 103 men for every 100 women currently.

Seasonal deaths: winter is Australia’s ‘death season’

‘The death season’ in Australia comprises our winter months, June July and August. Deaths in June are 11% above the monthly average, July is 26% and August 24% above the average. In summer of 2012 there were 25,617 deaths and in winter that same year Australia saw 41,926 deaths, an increase of 64%.

While Victoria hosts a deadly winter (66% increase in deaths compared to summer 2012), because of warmer weather, the Northern Territory does not have a noticeable winter and the deadliest month in the top end is January, and has been for the last 4 years.

Age of death increasing

The highest death numbers in Australia occur in the five year age bracket 85 to 89. This age group saw 19% of all deaths occur in 2012, making up 1 in 5 deaths for that year, despite 85-89s comprising just 1.2% of the population. Of the 279,684 Australians aged 85-89 in 2012, approximately 1 in 10 of them (27,885) died that year. Of the 3,299 Australians aged 100 and over in 2012, 2 in 5 of them (1,369) died in that year.

While those in their twenties recorded one of Australia’s lowest death rates, three times as many males (1,134) die in their twenties as do females (420).

Infant deaths declining

Infant deaths continue to decline even though we are setting new birth records (310,600 last year). While in 2002 the number of infant deaths recorded 397, this figure dropped to 312 ten years later. As total numbers of infant deaths continue to decline, so does the infant mortality rate from 4.6 (deaths per 1,000 live births) in 2002 to 3.2 ten years later in 2012.

Significant variability of state death rates

Western Australia had the lowest death rate of any state or territory (5.5 per 1,000 people), while the Northern Territory had the highest (7.9).

When measured by death rates, the deadliest place to live is Katherine in the Northern Territory (death rate 13.6), and the safest place to live is North Sydney (death rate 3.8). There is still a significant life expectancy gap between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians. For non-indigenous Australians, the median age at death for males in 2012 was 78.7 and females was 84.7, whereas for indigenous Australians the median age of death for males was 55 and for females it was 61.3. All of the Local Government Areas with the highest death rates are areas with higher indigenous populations than the national average.

Death rates in some localities is four times that of others

State

Lowest Death Rate in State

Local Government Area

Highest Death Rate in State

Local Government Area

NSW

3.8

North Sydney

9.4

Bourke

VIC

4.3

Stonnington

7.9

Central Goldfields

QLD

5.2

Sunshine Coast

8.9

Murweh

SA

4.2

Mitcham

10.1

Ceduna

WA

4.0

Perth

11.0

Derby-West Kimberley

TAS

5.8

West Tamar

8.8

Derwent Valley

NT

6.7

Darwin

13.6

Katherine

Country of birth

Of the 147,098 deaths in Australia in 2012, 320 people died who were visiting Australia (non-residents), 45,393 were Australians born overseas and 101,385 were Australians born locally.

Australian men born in the Ukraine have the highest male median age of death at 87.8 years of age, followed by Poland (87.3), Estonia (87.2) and Lithuania (87.2). In fact, Australian men born overseas had a greater life expectancy (79.8) than Australian born males (78.0).

Australian women born in Estonia have the highest longevity with a median age of death at 90.1, followed by those born in Latvia (88.9), Russia (88.4) and Lithuania (88.0). Australian females born overseas had a comparable median age of death (84.6) as those born in Australia (84.7).

About this study

This research was conducted through detailed analysis of ABS datasets and a nationally representative survey of 519 Australians over the age of 50 conducted in April 2014. The research will be presented by Mark McCrindle at the AFDA 2014 National Convention in Darwin, NT, on 1 June 2014.

Click here to download the research summary.

Demand Vs. Supply: Australia's Aged Care Puzzle

Tuesday, May 06, 2014

With Australia’s ageing population, increased life expectancy and longevity, there are growing demands for aged care in our nation.

Australia’s aged care sector is under pressure to meet this growing demand while at the same time facing significant recruitment and workforce challenges with half of the current aged care workforce reaching retirement age in the next 15 years.

McCrindle crunches the numbers in the latest infographic, the Aged Care Puzzle, to determine the magnitude of the demand versus supply gap.

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THE CHALLENGE OF DEMAND

Australia as an ageing nation

Australia is experiencing a baby boom, with births exceeding 315,000 a year, as well as an increasingly ageing population. The over 65s make up 15% of our population today, and forecasts project that this cohort will make up 17% in 2024, and by 2044, 1 in 5 Australians (20%) will be aged over 65.

Australia’s population pyramids visually show the growth of our ageing population, and in 2044 our population pyramid will become inverted with the number of over 60s outnumbering the under 18s for the first time. Our median age is also increasing – three decades ago the median age of an Australian was 30.5, today it is 37.3 and in 2044 it is projected to be 40.

The over 85s, where there is an even greater need for aged care services, are growing at an even faster rate than the over 65s. In 1984 there were 120,862 Australians aged over 85, today there are 4 times as many, and in 2044 there will be 14 times as many.

Not only are there more older people in our nation but Australians are living longer than ever before. Life expectancy at birth in 1984 was 75.8, whereas today it exceeds 80 for a male and 84 for a female. In 2044, it is projected to be 90.4.

Health advancements are increasing longevity

The primary enabler of this increased and ongoing longevity gain has been the health system rather than individual behaviour. Life expectancy increases will continue because of improved medical technologies, public health infrastructure, better public health measures, new and improved medical interventions and the improved survivability rates of major illnesses and cancers.

The health system is also what will keep us living longer in the future. With Australians living longer than ever before, there will be an increasing need for procedures and medical intervention, and a growing expectation from the public that these services will continue to be provided.

A decade ago, dementia and Alzheimer’s disease were the 6th largest causes of death in Australia, accounting for 4,364 deaths in 2002. Today they are the 3rd leading causes of death with the number of deaths having more than doubled to 9,864. Over the same period of time, deaths due to the first and second causes of deaths (heart disease and brain disease) have been decreasing. If today’s current trend continues over the next decade, by 2021 dementia and Alzheimer’s disease will be the leading cause of death in Australia.

With little change in the retirement age and an increase in longevity, the retirement years have increased and the years for which supported care is needed has also increased. Not only is our population larger, our population is also living longer.

Exponential growth of centenarians will keep the Queen busy

In 1952, the year that Queen Elizabeth II became sovereign, 40 letters of congratulations would need to have been written for Australians turning 100. This year, 2,643 Australians will turn 100 and in 30 years the number of congratulatory letters written to Australians turning 100 will increase to 18,567 in the year 2044.

THE CHALLENGE OF SUPPLY

Not only is there an increasing demand on the services provided by the aged care sector with the growing number of over 85s, there is also a workforce supply challenge.

Ratio of Workers to Retirees Declining

The ageing population will place greater demands for productivity on the labour force. In 1970, for every couple of retirement age there were 15 people in the working age population, by 2010 there were just 10 people of working age for every couple of retirement age, and this is projected to decline to just 5 people of working age for every couple at retirement age by 2050.

An Ageing Workforce

Along with our ageing population, we also have an ageing workforce. Today the median age of an Australian is 37.3 and the median age of a worker is 40. However this varies across sectors – for example, the median age in the retail sector is 33.4, finance 37.3, construction 38.5, health 41.1, education 42.1. However in the aged care sector this ageing is even more pronounced – the median age for a residential direct care worker is 48 and community direct care workers is 50 years which makes it the sector with the highest median age of an employee.

Impending retirements

Because of the high median age of an employee in the aged care sector, half of the aged care workforce will be of retirement age in 15 years. There are 240,445 workers in the aged care sector, so this equates to an average of 8,015 retirements per year for the next 15 years, which averages to 668 farewell lunches per month.

If we are to keep the current ratio of aged care workers to people aged over 85 in our nation, we need to add 77,976 workers in the next 10 years, which equates to recruiting 650 new workers per month, in addition to replacing the 668 retiring staff per month.

A Growing Need

In the next 30 years Australia will see an unprecedented rate of growth of the over 85s in our nation. In 2044 there will be 1.2 million more people aged over 85 than there are today, and the average older Australian will live 5 years longer than today which equates to adding 6 million more years of care just for the increased number of over 85s and just to manage their increased life expectancy.

Download the analysis and the infographic.

Click here to download this file


Launch of the The ABC of XYZ: Understanding the Global Generations- Third Edition, by Mark McCrindle

Tuesday, April 15, 2014
The ABC of XYZ - Understaning the Global Generations

Change is not unique to this era, but the speed, the size and the scope of the change that defines our times is unprecedented. It is through the frame of the generations that we can best understand the shifts, analyse the trends and know the times.

Based on more than a decade of research, The ABC of XYZ is designed for educators, business managers and parents who want a short and lively introduction to the global generations. The book explores what a generation is, how its definition has changed over the years, and the trends that are emerging for the future. It examines generational conflicts in the school, home and workplace, and the ways in which they can be understood and resolved, and what lies beyond Z.

Beyond social research, this book gives insights and practical strategies to help parents, teachers and managers bridge the gaps and engage with each generation. However, this book is more than a research-based reference work or valuable ‘how to’ guide – it is also a very interesting read with facts and lists to which members of each generation will reminisce. The book also answers the question, “Who comes after Generation Z?” by giving a future snapshot of Generation Alpha.

Written by Mark McCrindle, one of Australia’s foremost social researchers, this fully expanded and updated, third edition of The ABC of XYZ reveals the truth behind the labels and is essential reading for anyone interested in how our current generations live, learn and work.

Visit the website

Download a Chapter

Buy the book

Australia's Top Baby Names 2014 Revealed

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

McCrindle Baby Names Australia 2014 ReportAustralia is setting new records in the number of babies born per year – 2013 saw over 315,000 births in Australia! Nearly two fifths (39%) of babies born in Australia each year are named one of Australia’s Top 100 baby girl or boy names – that’s 124,624 babies taking a Top 100 name!

What are the Top 100 baby names for boys and girls in Australia in 2013? Through the nation’s only comprehensive analysis of all the registered births across all eight states and territories, McCrindle reveals the Baby Names Australia 2014 report.

Oliver rises to the top as Charlotte continues her strong lead

Charlotte and Oliver Top Baby Names AustraliaFor the first time in Australia’s history, Oliver has become the nation’s most popular boy’s name, overtaking William who has been at the top of the ranks for the last several years.

While Oliver was the top boy's name in three states/territories (QLD, SA, TAS) and William topped the list in four states/territories (NSW, ACT, VIC, and NT), numerically there were 37 more occurrences of Oliver than William across the nation.

Charlotte continues to be the favoured name among girls, remaining strong in 1st place and the choice for 1,969 girls in Australia.

More babies, less convergence

More Babies, Less ConvergenceAs record births taking place in Australia, parents are being more original in the baby names they choose with fewer babies being given one of the Top 100 names and this naming originality is even more evident amongst the naming of girls than boys.

40.6% of babies born in the 2012 calendar year were named one of the Top 100 baby names, with this figure reducing to 39.6% for the 2013 calendar year.

Names are seeing a ‘Hundred-Year Return’ in Australia

Hundred-Year Return of NamesThe trend in baby-naming in Australia is for the traditional over the inventive. There is a ‘Hundred-Year Return’ theme taking place in Australia, with many of the top names of today also in the top names of a century ago, while names of a few decades ago have fallen out of favour.

There’s a ring to it, and boys feature less syllables

Sounds of Baby NamesThe trend towards short and solid-sounding names for boys and longer flowing names for girls continues strongly in Australia.

Most of the Top 100 boy's names have two or fewer syllables, while almost 2 in 5 of the top girl's name have 3 or more syllables – twice as many as for boys. Additionally, while most of the boy's names end in a consonant, most of the girls’ names end in a softer sounding vowel or Y sound.

The influence of the royals – 12 in 22 current royal names are top baby names

Influence of the Royals on Baby NamesThe original category of celebrities – the royals – have not only captured the interest of modern Australians but continue to significantly influence their choice in baby names.

The new generation of British royals with their traditional names yet celebrity power are influencing baby naming trends in Australia currently. William is the top boys’ name in four states and territories and has been Australia’s number 1 name since 2011. The naming of Prince George has already had an impact, raising the rank of this boys’ name to its highest level since the 1970s.

Access the Baby Names Australia 2014 report below for the latest trends in baby names, state by state analysis, the influence of celebrities on Australian baby names, and analysis of New Zealand baby names.

Download Baby Names Australia 2014. Click here to download the full report.


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