Man Drought

Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Man Drought McCrindle

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The so-called “man drought” is an expression that has been used to describe the demographic reality in Australia of the population of women exceeding that of men. In Australia there are almost 100,000 more women than men, with 6 out of our 8 states and territories experiencing a man drought, while the Northern Territory and Western Australia have a significant male surplus. Currently there are almost 105 baby boys born for every 100 baby girls and so while there are more male than female children and teenagers in Australia, the gender gap dissipates in the twenties and by age 35, there are more females than males.

The regions in Australia with no “man drought” are those with significant mining operations (particularly Western Australia) and large military bases (most notable in the Northern Territory). In the NT there are almost 111 males for every 100 females, and WA has 102 males for every 100 females, with 27,389 more men than women in the state.

Victoria is the state with the highest ratio with females to males (98 males to every 100 females), with 58,399 more women than men. In Victoria there are no population centres not currently experiencing a man drought. However, suburb by suburb reveals gender disparities. Footscray has a man surplus (13% more males than females), whereas a few suburbs away in South Melbourne, the man drought is very evident with 5% more females than males.


NSW: Singleton is living up to its name with not only almost 5% more males than females, but with a median age of just 33 (well below the national average age of 38), many of these males are indeed single. Interestingly, just 90 minutes south is Wyong, where there are almost 7% females than males (almost 5,000).

Sydney makes for a fascinating study in populations by gender, with Pyrmont having 3.6% more males than females whereas the next suburb over the Anzac bridge lies Balmain with 8.7% more females than males.


QLD: While Queensland is suffering a man drought at an overall state level, the drought has more than broken in many of its inland cities, particularly where there are mining activities and Mt Isa is a classic example with almost 12% more males than females (an oversupply of 1137 men). However 1,000kms north east is Cairns with a man drought (1537 more women than men).

In Brisbane, the river represents a man drought divide with Yeronga experiencing the man drought (almost 5% more women than men), while Spring Hill has a man over supply (a whopping 27% more men than women).


SA: In South Australia, Whyalla is home to one of the state’s few places not experiencing a man drought with 241 more men than women. While West Lakes (along with most suburbs in Adelaide), is in man drought with almost 8% more women than men.


WA: Many of WA’s towns have no man drought – Kalgoolie a leading example with almost 10% more men than women, while Bunbury, south of Perth, like many of WA’s costal towns has more women than men (1.3%).

In Perth, Midland has 2% more men than women but just half an hour to the west lies Stirling with 1561 more women than men (almost 3%).


TAS: Every city and town in Tasmania is experiencing man drought – however Central Hobart has more men than women (1%), but just 2km west is West Hobart which has 9% more women than men.


ACT: And in the National Capital, Commonwealth Avenue acts as a man drought conduit with South Canberra experiencing man drought (530 more women than men), but on the other side of Commonwealth Ave bridge in North Canberra, there are 592 more men than women. 

Big Australia [in the media]

Friday, February 07, 2014

Big Australia McCrindleOur country has grown more than 50% since 1984, up from 15 million people to 23 million in just three decades. Recent research shows that if this growth pattern continues, we could hit a population of more than 40 million by 2050!

What does this mean for us and future generations? Mark McCrindle joins Network Ten’s Wake Up to discuss the trends and implications of Australia’s rapid population growth.


Behind the record-breaking growth are increasing births, decreasing birth rates, and greater migration than ever. We’re setting record births (300,000 births per year), and we have half as many deaths as births as we are living longer.

The natural increase accounts for only 40% of the growth, however, while 60% is the result of net migration with 500,000 arrivals per year (and half as many departures). These numbers, added together, equal a total growth of 400,000 per year.

While many Australians fear that a growing population is only increasing the strain on our roads and access to services, population growth isn’t all bad news. Domestic demand that is being created by a growing population has kept Australia from entering economic depression. With more people buying goods and services than ever before and more workers available for the labour force, the economy keeps a steady hold despite a rapidly ageing population.

To keep things in perspective, America with a similar landmass has 311 million people, and, with a bit of planning, Australia too can cater for a growing population.

Planning for future growth is key – including adequate infrastructure, town planning, and improving the availability and access to health care and education services. It is by looking ahead at the trend-lines that Australia will effectively cope with a rapidly increasing population, especially across our densely populated urban centres.




See our Big Australia and Australia at 23 Million infographics on this topic:


Big Australia infographic | Population and size comparison with other countries Australia at 23 million infographic | a mid sized country, but world beating growth

How do Australians get to work? [in the media]

Wednesday, February 05, 2014

Mark McCrindleAustralia is growing by 300,000 cars each year and is currently home to 13.3 million registered passenger vehicles – an all-time record high.

Social researcher Mark McCrindle joins ABC’s News Breakfast to talk through the latest social analysis on transport and how Australians get to work.


9 in 10 Australians use a car for some purpose, and 7 in 10 Australians use a car to get to work. Just 1 in 10 Australians use some form of public transport to get to work.

When asked why Australians don’t use public transport, 54% say it’s because public transport options are not readily available to them. In fact, for 1 in 5 that do use public transport, they also use a car to access their bus or train stop.

These figures explain why Australians place such an emphasis on government tax dollars being spent on improving road systems rather than investing in public transport infrastructure.

The urban sprawl that has marked our cities is evident in these figures. Tune in to the segment as Mark discusses the latest social analysis:



ABC News Breakfast also takes an in-depth look at McCrindle's Getting to Work figures across the nation's capitals.

When comparing cities and regions, Sydney has 1.1 million drivers on the road, and while Melbourne has less commuters, it actually has more car drivers than Sydney.

Almost 40% of all female cyclists get to work in Melbourne.

Sydney has declined in the number of people taking passengers to work, whereas Hobart leads the charge with people dropping someone to work.

The Northern Territory is the place where people are more likely to walk to work than any other state or territory with 1 in 10 walking to work.

Queenslanders are most likely to use a motorcycle than any other city, and Canberra is also big in push bike riding.

Tune in to ABC reporters as they discuss how Sydney and Melbourne commuters compare in the way they get to work:



Jobs of the Future: Where will we be working in 2030? [in the media]

Thursday, January 23, 2014

The jobs of today will not be the jobs of tomorrow. It is not just young people who are affected by economic shifts as they consider their area of study, but all working Australians will experience the demographic shifts and technological trends taking place over the coming decades.

To future-proof careers, looking at the big picture trends to define future growth areas is essential.

Technological influences are creating massive jobs and opportunities, bringing other jobs to an end. From manufacturing becoming automated, robotic processes replacing jobs, driverless vehicles and the emergence of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) replacing human navigation, and automated pickers reducing the demand for some plant operators, new technologies are replacing old roles. However, technology also creates new careers and opportunities. For example, in less than a decade, cloud computing, social media, and wireless devices have created roles such as teleworking coordinators, app developers, social media managers, and digital analysts.

Demographic changes such as Australia’s ageing population is creating new demand and opportunities, not just for the aged care sector but also for retirement service agents. Australia’s record birth rates and more affluent parents are creating new childcare services and carer roles. From cultural diversity to changing family structures, population shifts create new demands and industries.

Today’s average school leavers will have 17 employers in 5 industry sector across their lifetime. Traditionally, even a generation ago, people stayed 10 years in a career, but today’s average work tenure is just 3 years and 4 months per job.

Mark McCrindle joins Tarsh and James live from Manly beach on Network Ten Wake Up. Mark describes that the key for tomorrow’s employee is being innovative, not thinking in terms of a ‘career-for-life,’ but pursuing a broad range of easily-adaptable skills.

“Being nimble is key,” Mark says, “As all of us will be living longer and working later than ever before.”


Generation Rent [in the media]

Friday, November 15, 2013

The amount of first time buyers taking out home loans has fallen to its lowest level in almost a decade.

Compared to 30 years ago, there’s now twice as many Australians renting, and for many Generation Y's now in their 20’s and 30’s, buying their own home will now seem almost unattainable.


Mark McCrindle joins Today Tonight on the topic of Generation Rent – outlining how difficult it is today for young people to break into the property market.


Today it is twice as hard for young people to buy their first property compared to when their parents were starting out, because they’re not just competing with other first home buyers but also with investors, self-managed super funds, trusts and overseas buyers.

Four decades ago, an average home in a capital city was 5 times the average annual earnings, and today it’s 10 times average annual earnings.

It’s not all bad news – in many areas, particularly in the inner city suburbs, it is much cheaper for young people to rent than buy, and as long as they’re investing and not spending everything on lifestyle pursuits, young people will get ahead even without home ownership.


Australia's Ever-Changing Communities [Interview]

Thursday, October 24, 2013

It's hard to stay relevant in today’s current environment. How can we interact with our communities and fellow Australians? How are things changing across Australia – demographically, socially, and generationally?

Mark McCrindle joins Hope 103.2's Hope Breakfast with Aaron and Erin to discuss the latest trends and changes facing Australian communities.


How is Australia changing and what have we missed when we talk about Australian communities?


We're certainly growing and changing as a society – if someone hadn't really looked at the demographics of Australia for 10 years, suddenly were a few million people more, new generations have emerged we're more culturally diverse as a nation than ever. It is important for everyone to observe these changes and remain relevant.


Are there things we are oblivious to when it comes to understanding our communities?


Well, oftentimes we miss that we are so much more mobile as a community in terms of how often we move home. We look at our parents who may have stayed in their family home their whole lives, but now we've got a third of the population renting, and the average renter in Australia stays just 1.8 years per home. Even those who are paying down a mortgage with family and kids are only staying for 8 years. We are moving across our communities more frequently which means we don't so much know our neighbours – in a sense we are losing that connection with our local neighbourhood but still have a strong need for local connection.


We have seen interesting shifts in some of our suburbs, particularly noticing that areas have become more multicultural in just 5 years. Can things shift that quickly?


Yes it has happened quickly and there is also a significant change in terms of housing structures. Now 1 in 4 homes are medium to high density housing, and more of those homes have been units or townhouses as opposed to detached homes. So much so that the population centre (where there are as many people east, west, south, and north in a city) identified in Sydney is now is now Ermington, just slightly east of Parramatta. Interestingly it hasn't moved from the last 6 years whereas before it was moving further west. Nowadays, for each home being built on the outside skirts of the city, we've got high density housing and units being built closer to the city.


How are we going generationally? What are some of the shifts that are taking place?


The workplace is certainly an area where we're seeing some significant change  Gen Ys are entering the workplace in big numbers and have a different attitude to work – they don't stay as long as used to be the case, with older generations now saying, "Where is their commitment?"

But at the same time we find that the generational space is in good health because we are connecting across those generations a bit more in our households, families, or shopping centres – we're bumping into a wider age range than used to be the case. People are older and ageing in Australia while we’ve also got record births. We're across the generations more in the public space which is a positive thing because each generation brings strength and their own vibrancy. It's important that we have these intergenerational spaces to connect in our society today.


Let’s talk a bit more about the Australian Communities Forum that you are hosting on 1 November 2013. You’ve mentioned in just a short time that there is clearly a lot we need to be informed about if we want to engage with our communities we need to understand them. Is this what you are aiming to do at the Forum?


Exactly right, this is Australia’s only one day forum focused on communities – held at Customs House, Circular Quay, Sydney with the City of Sydney and some great sponsors on board.

In a day we want to help Australians understand communities from a demographic perspective, the generational change, how to connect with workplace communities, and even how to connect with geographical communities. Learning how to communicate in these changed times is key, as well as learning how to meet the needs of our ever-changing communities.

We are focusing the Forum not just on community groups and charities but business people and those in the commercial world – they need to understand their customers who are communities, empowered, educated and on active on social media– how they can best connect and engage their needs.

For all of Australia’s communities in all their diversity, we want to give a snapshot and give some tools as to how you can understand and connect with community better.


Get the full interview with Aaron and Erin on Hope 103.2 here.

Click here to secure your last-minute registration for the Australian Communities Forum.

Australia's Kidult Phenomenon

Friday, September 20, 2013

For many young Australians, home is still where the heart is. In fact, 29 percent of 18 to 34 year-olds are still living at home.

Mark McCrindle joins Larry and Kylie on The Morning Show to discuss Australia’s Kidult Phenomenon.


Comparing 1976 with 2011


In 2011, only 42 per cent of young adults were living with a partner - and only half of those couples had children. But if we travel back to 1976, we see a surprising trend: 65 percent of young adults lived with a partner, and 3 in 4 of them had children.

A number of trends contribute to the ‘staying with mum and dad’ phenomenon. In 2011, 26% of adults aged 18-34 were studying, compared to 14% in 1976. But statistics also tell a different story – young adults are not necessarily at home because they are building their careers, with only 69% of 18-34 year olds working 40 hours or more per week in 2011, compared to 84% doing the same in 1976.


Top 5 trends keeping young adults from leaving home


  1. Studying longer
  2. Starting families later
  3. Delaying career & earnings
  4. Higher housing costs
  5. More flexibility & lifestyle options

What about the future?


Is it the parents who want their kids to stay home until they’re married, or is it the kids who don’t want to leave?

How does Australia compare to other countries when it comes to this type of living arrangement? Looking into the future, are we likely to see this trend continuing?

View the segment to find out:

For more videos of Mark in the media, visit the McCrindle Research Media Page.

The Downageing Generation

Monday, September 09, 2013

Australians are living longer than ever before and this remarkable growth in longevity is the primary cause of our ageing population. 

With Australians living longer, they are also working later and remaining active as grandparents more and later in life than ever before.

Many older Australians are in a life stage significantly younger than their age. 20th Century expectations of age can no longer be applied in the 21st Century, as traditional demographics don’t match new psychographics. From technology uptake to working longer, older Australians are not just “retired and wired” but working, leading and influencing later in life than has ever been seen.

Here’s a demographic snapshot of the downageing situation:


Comparative analysis of Australia’s 60-year-olds


1953

2013

National population

The total population has more than doubled.

10 million

23 million

Average age of becoming a grandparent

Grandparents are older chronologically but younger psychologically.

54-56

58-60

Life expectancy at birth

We can expect to live 12 years longer today than in 1953.

M:67

F: 73

M:80

F: 84

Life expectancy at 65

65’s of today are like 58’s of a generation ago in terms of longevity.

12-15

19-22

Source: McCrindle Research, ABS



Australia’s new grandparents: Younger than their parents were at the same age


Australia’s new grandparents, aged 60 are the Baby Boomers. Since the Boomers (born 1946-1964), we’ve seen Generation X (born 1965-1979), Gen Y (born 1980-1994) and this year Generation Z (born since 1995) enter adulthood and the Boomers are now grandparenting Generation Alpha.

But they are a generation of “downagers” – younger than their parents were at the same age, younger than their age would suggest, and based on the life expectancy rates, a 65 year old grandparent is more like a 58 year old of a generation ago.


Statistical summary of today’s downageing population


  • Demographic mid-life for an Australian has been pushed back to 50 years for a male, and 52 for a female in terms of adult years lived (since turning 18) and adult years to go (32 years lived since turning 18 and 32 years life expectancy for a male aged 50, and 34 adult years lived and 34 to go on average for a female).
  • The median age of employed persons in industries such as Education and Health is now 45 years – so while there are many workers in their 20’s, there are many in their 60’s, resulting in a median age of 45.
  • Today's grandparents are a working generation: 1 in 4 males aged 68 are employed full time, and 1 in 10 females aged 68 are employed full time.

Remember that many of today’s 60-something leaders have been in leadership since their 20’s and 30’s – they were needed during the boom years of the 50’s and 60’s. They also see no need to stop leading – having gained experience through decades and a lot of life left, they continue leading many of Australia’s businesses and industries.

For further research and an occupation breakdown of workers 65+, see our entry Older Workers, Downagers, and Redefining Retirement.

Australia’s Changing Household Landscape

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Nuclear family no longer most common household


For the first time in Australia's history, the nuclear family will no longer be the most common household – while today they make up 33% of all households, within just a year the couple only household will be the most common type of household.


Multi-generational households


With the decline of the nuclear household structure, we are often seeing three generations living under one roof: Baby boomers are being sandwiched by taking care of their own parents (the builders), while still having their Gen Y children living with them and studying.


Boomerang kids


This type of arrangement is a significant financial advantage for Gen Y KIPPERS (Kids In Parents’ Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings) who may be saving $15,000 per year on rent alone by living with their parents. For mum and dad, however, retirement plans are delayed and retirement savings significantly decrease. Baby Boomer parents, while enjoying the social interactions available in a multigenerational household, can often feel the pressure and may feel like their hard work is being taken for granted.

Household situations can also get financially tight when couples split – in Australia, the average age of a couple separating is 38, with an average of 2 children involved in the separation. Oftentimes in this situation couples stay together because it is simply not financially viable to move out.


Record births, older parents, increase in family size


Australian families are changing dramatically, with record birth rates taking place – over 300,000 babies are being born every year, more than were born in the original baby boom post WWII. It is not that more women are deciding to have children, but those that are having children are deciding to have more than previously, and as a result Australia is seeing an increase in the family size.


Household size grows after a century of shrinkage


Household size has been declining for the last 100 years. In 1911, the average household size for Australia was 4.5. By 2006, it had fallen to 2.53. But in 2011, something remarkable happened. Household size increased. Only by a small amount, but enough to raise it to the current 2.6 people per household. The multi-gen household and boomerang kids have turned around a 100-year trend and created expanding household size.


Today's children and teenagers: a snapshot of Generation Z


They are the true Millennial generation: the 4 million Australians born since the year 2000. On average they will live longer, stay in education later, and work across more careers than any prior generation. They are the most materially supplied, technologically saturated, globally connected  and formally educated generation  ever. They are living through their formative years in a time of massive demographic transformation: our population growing by more people in a decade than ever, more culturally diverse than ever, and older than ever.

In the nearly 14 years of their lifespan they have seen more change than any cohort before them. They began life when Australia’s birth rate was declining and soon hit its lowest ebb in history, yet are now part of record annual births- exceeding 300,000 per year. They began their life in the internet era but are being shaped in the world of social media. While the PC era dominated their birth years, the mobile device era is transformative today. With the oldest entering their teen years, their lexicons are filled with terms that didn’t exist at their birth: apps, tweets, tablets, status updates and cloud computing.

Only occasionally does massive demographic change collide with huge technological growth, and significant social change- yet this is exactly what Generation Z has experienced. The confluence of these trends has so transformed their society, it is radically different to the times that shaped their parents and unrecognizable to the world their grandparents first knew.

Generation Z: Understanding and Engaging the Emerging Generations

Thursday, August 01, 2013

From the Baby Boomers and Generation X and Generation Y, it is now Generation Z and Generation Alpha that are emerging.

These new generations are global, social, visual and technological. They are the most connected, educated and sophisticated generations ever. They are the up-agers, with influence beyond their years. They are the tweens, the teens, the youth and young adults of our global society. They are the early adopters, the brand influencers, the social media drivers, the pop-culture leaders. They comprise nearly 2 billion people globally, and they don’t just represent the future, they’re creating it. To understand the trends, to respond to the changes, and to be positioned to thrive in these changing times, it is essential to understand these next gens.

Who are Today’s Gen Zs?

Gen Zs are demographically changed – growing up in an era of Australia’s largest baby boom since the birth of the Boomer generation, and are living in an era of changing household structures. They are generationally changed – shaped in a society with an increasingly ageing population. They are digitally transformed – seamlessly integrating technology into their everyday realities. They are globally focused through the emergence of global pop culture, global brands, and a borderless virtual reality. They are educationally transformed – moving past structural and linear learning – and they are socially defined, connected to and shaped by their peers.

Gen Zs at Work: How to attract, retaining, managing & training emerging generations

While Generation Z are still largely in the education system and only just beginning to emerge into the workforce, within a decade they will comprise almost 1 in 5 workers. The oldest cohort of Gen Zs are now 19 years old, many of whom are entering the workforce for the very first time. How can employers understand and engage with the needs of these new employees?

Over the last couple of years the realities of massive generational change have dawned on many business leaders. While the issues of an ageing population and a new attitude to work have literally been emerging for a generation, it has been a sudden awakening for many organisations. In fact dealing with these demographic changes and specifically recruiting, retaining and managing the new generations has emerged as one of the biggest issues facing employers today.



Armed with her research methodologies, business acumen and communication skills, Claire effectively bridges the gap between the emerging generations and the business leaders and educators of today. Claire is a social researcher and a next-gen expert, fluent in the social media, youth culture, and engagement styles of these global generations, and a professional in interpreting what this means for educators, managers and marketers. Visit clairemadden.com for more info.

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