What Makes a City the Most Liveable?

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

What makes a state or city liveable? Is it the low crime rate, affordability, ease of travel or is it simply the weather? We have compared some of the major factors and revealed what Aussies really think.

Affordability

If you take the average weekly earnings, subtract the average weekly mortgage repayments based on house costs, you find that NSW doesn’t do too well, it is earning 20% above the average, but the houses are 64% above the average, so NSW works out to be the worst in terms of income after housing. But WA is on top of the charts, with the ACT doing pretty well also.


Ease of travel

We took the centre of population of each of our capital cities, the mid-point of the population sprawl where as many people live north, as south of this point, and as many east, as west. From this centre of living we measured the average, non-peak hour driving time to the centre of the CBD marked by the GPO of each capital. We found that as we would probably expect, Sydney was the longest drive, about 33 minutes to get from the centre of population to the centre of the city, but the quickest trip of all was Brisbane with just 8 minutes.


Crime rates

This is the number of offenders per annum, per 100 people and the Territories book end the data here, with the ACT with the lowest crime rate nationally and the Northern Territory as the highest crime rate and the other states right in the middle. As measured by crime rates, the ACT is Australia’s safest place to live.


Weather

We measured this by looking at the average number of sunny days - totally clear days in a year. Tasmania not doing too well with a lot of cloudy, overcast days, but WA takes the crown with the most number of sunny days in any given year.



Watch Mark McCrindle's full interview on The Daily Edition here


The Shopper's Pick: Understanding Australia's new village green

Thursday, July 14, 2016

This year we were delighted to write up and design the third and latest report in the Trolley Trends Series, ‘The Shoppers Pick’ for Woolworths Limited. From developing the survey through to conducting the analysis, this report is the perfect blend of quality research with segmentation and visuals, making the research easy to consume.

With 1 in 5 (20%) Australian supermarket customers going to the supermarket at least once a week, the report reveals that a record number of people (44%) consider the local shopping centre to be central to community life and has truly established itself as the new village green – a place for connection and engagement with the wider community, perhaps even more so than the local pub, school or community centre.

It is the theme of local which is clearly the key message of ‘The Shopper’s Pick’, which provides a unique look into modern Australia’s living, eating and shopping habits today.


A GLOBAL NATION WITH A PASSION FOR LOCAL

As Australia becomes increasingly connected to global economies and new technologies, there is an equal if not stronger desire among shoppers to support Australian made products and local growers. It is increasingly important to Australian shoppers to know where their food comes from.

More than half of Australian shoppers (52%) state that buying local food is extremely or very important to them. In fact, around a quarter of shoppers prefer to purchase meat and poultry, bread and grains, and seafood and fish that are sourced locally in their own region rather than sourced further afield in their own state or within another region in Australia.


AUSTRALIA’S SEASONAL PERSONALITIES

Australians are impacted in different ways by the changing seasons. Australia’s Seasonal Personalities explores the different personalities of Australians and the impact seasons have on their lifestyle. Which Seasonal Personality are you?

THE HEALTH REVOLUTION

Australians are becoming increasingly health conscious and aware of the foods they consume. This trend towards healthy eating is demonstrated in the increase of health foods being included by Australians in their weekly shop.

Just over half of shoppers (52%) buy health food products weekly (i.e. sugar free, additive free, gluten free, dairy free, organic, raw, salt free or vegan), with sugar free products the most likely to be on Australians’ shopping lists and purchased by just over half of shoppers (51%), followed by organic and raw foods (both at 35%), and additive free foods (27%).


VALUE SWAG: A NATION OF CREATIVE SAVERS

Australians are a nation of savvy shoppers, who seek products that are value for money. Nearly 7 in 10 shoppers (69%) state that buying on discount is extremely or very important to them. These values are reflected in the ingredients they purchase for meals cooked at home, with 99% of Australian shoppers saying price is an important factor they take into consideration. As part of being savvy shoppers, Australians are also creative savers. Almost 6 in 10 shoppers (58%) save money by purchasing groceries based on weekly specials, while just over half (52%) save money by writing a shopping list and sticking to it. Stocking up and bulk-buying are two other ways Australians save money, with just over half of shoppers (53%) currently saving money by stocking up on discounted non-perishables.


This report follows on from the 2014 Trolley Trends Report which focused on the increasing importance of ‘Fresh’ amongst the Australian population. The report also found that one of the most common community connections for Australians is the local shopping centre. To access the Future of Fresh report, please click here.

World Population Day; a snapshot of Australia’s population state vs. state

Monday, July 11, 2016

Today is World Population Day, so let's take a look at different aspects of Australia's demographics and how each of our states stack up. Sydney’s headcount will hit 5 million later this year, but can it keep its place as the nation’s biggest city? The state of Queensland is also set to mark a major milestone, as it hits 5 million, while Melbourne has maintained its lead as Australia's fastest growing city.

what will a population of 5 million mean for Sydney?

More densification and more urbanisation. 1 in 5 Australians lives in Sydney and it’s been one of the fastest growing cities and from a population perspective it’s Australia's leading city. For every new detached home that is built in Sydney, you now have 2 units or townhouses, so it’s the vertical communities not just the horizontal ones – that’s what will mark Sydney’s future as the city continues to grow.

NSW is going to hit 8 million, but Queensland is going to hit a milestone too

Queensland is closing in on the 5 million mark, and around the same time, Sydney gets to 5 million. Queensland is interesting because it’s the most decentralised of our states, more than half of the population lives outside of its capital of Brisbane. It’s has 11 of Australia's 30 largest cities, while NSW only has 5. For NSW, two thirds of the whole state lives in the one city of Sydney.

In terms of population growth, how do the other capital cities compare with Sydney?

It’s really all about Sydney and Melbourne, in terms of the size of the cities, they are the largest cities. We have slower growing states like South Australia and Tasmania - in fact Melbourne is adding more people every 11 days than Tasmania adds in an entire year at the moment.

By comparison, how slow is South Australia’s growth?

It is quite slow, it was 1959 that Sydney got to 2 million people, Adelaide won’t get to 2 million until 2055, about a century after Sydney got there. While it’s the fifth largest city, it’s a long way off the pace of Sydney and Melbourne. Interestingly, in the year that both Sydney and Melbourne get to 8 million, it will be in that year that Adelaide gets to 2 million.

Why is South Australia’s growth so small?

This hasn’t had the historical scale and growth of the Eastern capitals. While it has the lifestyle and housing affordability, it hasn’t been Australia's business capital in the same way that Sydney and Melbourne have been however, with new state government incentives, this may start to change. 

View Mark's full interview on The Daily Edition here


How effective Demographic Analysis can transform your business

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Numbers and people have long been two of the most important aspects of an organisation. Demographics is the merging of these two fundamentals and has a direct impact on the ability of organisations to effectively engage their clients and staff.


Why Demographic Analysis?

Demographic analysis gives insight into the age, sex and geographic composition of a population. There are many other characteristics of a population that can also be explored such as household income, employment status and educational background. Whilst it may be seemingly broad in scope, it is an essential first step to understanding your clients and staff.

Are your clientele predominantly Generation Y or are they Baby Boomers, are they in the higher income brackets or of lower socio economics? Asking these questions allows you to delve deeper into how to tailor your offering to your target market. Demographic shifts in society directly impact upon an organisation’s ability to shape their marketing, products and services to best suit their clients. Densification, mobility, purchasing behaviours, technology use, media consumption – these are all key measures which demographic and market analysis will help you understand.

In a constantly changing society, demographic analysis provides insight and visibility into the otherwise unseeable influences on our organisations and businesses.


Some McCrindle examples:


  

About McCrindle RESEARCH SERVICES

At McCrindle we are engaged by some of the leading brands and most effective organisations across Australia and internationally to help them understand the ever-changing external environment in which they operate and to assist them in identifying and responding to the key trends.


For us research is not a list of survey methods but a passion to find answers. It is more than a matter of questionnaires and focus groups – it is a quest to make the unknown known. The best research clarifies the complex and reveals insights in a way that can be seen and not just read.


Only when the findings are visually displayed, engagingly presented and strategically workshopped can they have maximum impact – and be implemented effectively.

Why the August count will mean more than the July count

Monday, June 27, 2016

It’s not the July count but the August one that will be most revealing for Australia. It’s the Census not the Election that will tell us most about ourselves. The election will reveal a lot about our political persuasions and policy preferences however it is the census that will offer far more clarity and detail about our nation. And in a political era where policy and budgetary settings extend beyond the election cycle, the data and forecasts delivered twice a decade in the census are becoming increasingly essential.

If the election is a national compass that will set something of the policy direction for Australia over the next 3 years, the census is a map that shows us who we are as a society in a big picture sense, as well as the contours that highlight our varied local communities and their detailed needs. The political custodians of the national compass will need a good understanding of the lay of the land, the changing terrain and the context in which national leadership operates if they are to guide us effectively.

The map this year will show a more complex Australia, more delineations than in the past culturally, economically and socially. The land of wide open spaces is becoming more urbanised, densified and diverse. The land of the middle class is showing more fractures and there are some fault lines emerging across this big land of opportunity. However, despite the differing terrains across this nation of communities, the census will show a sense of unity amongst the diversity- a contiguous landscape of varied elements.

The changes the census will show can be summed up in five words:

Bigger

Not only will the numbers show that we exceed 24 million, but that we’ve more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1966 Census when we hadn’t even hit the 12 million mark. Sydney will also be shown to have just hit the 5 million milestone- the first Australian city to do so and also more than twice the population of 50 years ago of just 2.4 million.

Older

Our population profile will no longer be a “population pyramid” as for the first time there will be more Australians aged over 55’s than under 20. The 1966 Census showed less than 1 million Australians aged 65 or over while this one will show more than 3.5 million. Those in the “aged” category of 85 plus have gone from less than 55,000 then to almost half a million now.

Urban

for the first time this Census will show one in four Australian households live in townhouses or apartments rather than detached houses- the highest figure ever, up from just one in ten in 1966. The six state capitals plus Canberra have grown from just over half the population (6.7 million people) to more than two-thirds (16 million) in half a century.

Diverse

In 5 decades the proportion of Australians born overseas has increased from 17% to more than 30%. Back then, 90% of migrants were born in Europe with those born in Asia comprising less than 1% of the population while today China, India and Vietnam are all in the Top 5 countries of birth.

Mobile

Australians travel more than ever and getting to work by private vehicle is still the main transport mode, used by 2 in 3 workers. More than half of all households have at least 2 cars compared to less than 1 in 10 households in 1966. Back then, 40% of households had no car compared to just 8.6% today.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics do a superb job in providing such a detailed social map, updated every 5 years, regarded internationally as world-leading and provided in full, free to all to access for their own journey. Like any good map it shows all the peaks and valleys without agenda or ideology. No gloss needed- the data provides the picture and it is up to those who access it to chart a way forward any point out the pitfalls. As we each plot our own points on August 9 we are in the process charting a national map that will provide navigation into the next decade- a decade that will likely be the most transformative in Australia’s history.

Happy 24 millionth Australia!

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Early this morning, Australia passed a significant population milestone. At 12.51 am on Tuesday, 16 February 2016, Australia officially has a population of 24 million people. But who was the 24 millionth Australian, and what does a population of 24 million mean for our country? Because not everyone is glued to the ABS population clock like us, we thought we'd break down what it all means. We're futurists, after all. Find out more below.


Here's who we are and what we look like:


more analysis of australia at 24 million:

A new population milestone

12 vs 24 million

Myth busting

24 facts about australia at 24 million

View the Australian Bureau of Statistics population clock here.

in the media

  

McCrindle in the Media

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

As Australia’s leading social researchers, the senior research team at McCrindle are actively involved in media commentary. From demographic analysis and future forecasts, to communication of key research findings and the identification of social trends, at McCrindle we are passionate about communicating insights in clear, accessible and useable ways.

Here are some of the most recent media pieces our research and team have been cited in:


Millenials found to be far more likely to quit work than other generations

“Millenials are a multi-career generation, moving from one job to another and from one job to further study or an overseas job. Mobility defines them,” he said.
“They’re a more educated cohort, they’re more tech-resourced. Even when they’re happy in a job they’re passive job hunters because they’re so well networked. People are approaching them on LinkedIn and they want to be future proofed.”
“They are looking for belonging and leading and shaping things. They want to be successful so if employers are empowering and involving them they will stay longer. A pay increase is a short-term fix but in the long term it’s all about engagement.”
CLICK HERE TO READ THE ARTICLE


Buyers Swap 'Traditional Aussie Dream' For High Density Apartments

McCrinde Research social demographer Mark McCrindle concedes many foreign buyers are getting into the market, but said the lift in demand was also due to more Australian singles, couples and families opting for apartments.

Australia's booming population was underpinning the shift, he said, by pushing up demand for property of which apartments were an affordable type. "In less than 2 weeks we hit the 24 million mark and that's an increase of a million people in just around three years, so it's pretty significant growth," he told The Huffington Post Australia.


Inside Sydney’s homes of the future: A city of cities as homes get smaller and taller

McCrinde Research social demographer Mark McCrindle says Sydney's residential landscape will be forced to change to cope with the population growth, with multi-use residential developments the way of the future and a move away from CBD workplaces.

“We’re essentially going to be a city of cities, with not everyone working in the CBD,” Mark explains. “People will work in the suburbs, in business parks, and we will have second, third and fourth CBD areas where you work, live and play all within the locale.”




Why money is a big issue for Australian retirees in 2016

Social researcher Mark McCrindle said financial instability was an enemy of retirees. After the GFC a lot of people had to change their retirement plans and expectations because so much was wiped off,” he said.

Falling house prices in several states were adding uncertainty to retirees looking to downsize, Mr McCrindle said, while there were social impacts caused by children failing to leave the nest. “Retirees can’t quite make their own independent decisions because they still have adult children living at home.”

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ARTICLE



According to Optus’ Renter of the Future report out today, three out of ten renting households consider themselves as “choice renters” who are not buying into the great Australian property dream. And when it comes to choice renters, they are three times more likely to be tech savvy.
The report, which was conducted by McCrindle Research shows that 2016 will see a new generation of tech-savvy renters who favour a lifestyle fuelled by freedom, flexibility and choice.
“We wanted to understand the renter and find out who they are. Demographically they’re got punch, geographically they’re got punch and as we’ve found from this technologically they’re amongst the earliest adopters,” said Mark McCrindle, social demographer.




Today's trends are coming at us faster than ever and have a life cycle that is shorter than we've ever seen before. Trends are increasingly global -- and with that, they're bigger, better, and faster.

From a generation who can track, monitor, record and analyse their every moment, to work that is increasingly being done in non-traditional places, here are some trends to watch in 2016.


CLICK HERE TO READ THE ARTICLE

A new population milestone

Friday, February 05, 2016

A new population milestone

Australia is fast closing in on the next population milestone of 24 million. In the early minutes of Tuesday 16 February 2016, at 12:51am, Australia will officially hit a population of 24,000,000. Because not everyone will be glued to the ABS Population clock (link) like us, we thought we’d give you an advanced peak at what it will show (we’re futurists after all!).

Doubling Australia’s population- in pace with the world

In 1968, Australia’s population reached 12 million and so it has taken 48 years to double. Interestingly, in 1970, the global population was exactly half what it currently is at 7.3 billion and so the world has taken only slightly less time, 46 years, to double.

More than one third of Australians have seen both Australia, and the world double in population size in their lifetime!

A new million- in record time

Australia reached 23 million on 23 April 2013 which means it has added its 24th million in 2 years, 9 months and 2 days. This is the first time that a million people has been added to Australia’s population in less than 3 years. From 1954 when the population hit 9 million, until 2003 when the population hit 20 million, each addition million was added in a time span of around 4 and a half years. From 20 to 23 million, the time span had decreased to add each million every 3 and a half years (keeping in mind the readjustment in the timing of Australia reaching 22 million which was altered due to population adjustments based on the results of the 2011 Census).

And 17 years ahead of schedule

When Australia’s population reached 19 million on 18 August 1999, the factors of population increase were such that the forecast was for the national population to reach 24 million in 2033. However rather than each new million being added every 7 to 9 years as was forecast based on the trends at the time, Australia is adding an extra million every 3 years (increasing from 21 million to 24 million in 8 years and 8 months).

Baby boom, longevity boom and migration growth

Not only has the fertility rate over the last decade been much higher than predicted (and the consequential record baby boom averaging 300,000 births per year), but the increase in life expectancy was also beyond these predictions. And while net migration numbers have been slowing over the last couple of years, growth from migration was, and still is above the forecasts of the late 20th Century.

40 million by 2050

As recently as 2009 the forecast was for the population to reach 36 million by 2050. However, even based on the more modest population growth rate of 1.5% (well below the highs of 1.9% achieved in recent years), Australia’s population will reach 40 million by mid-century, with the possibility of it being beyond 43 million (based on 1.7% annual growth).

24 million of 7.3 billion

While Australia’s population growth is significant in national terms, our new milestone of 24 million is small compared to the US population of 323 million. And in a global context, Australia’s share of the world’s population is just 0.32% - less than one-third of 1%!

Happy 24 millionth Australia!

Australia at 12 vs 24 million

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Australia’s population will soar to 24 million this year, but what exactly did the country look like when the population was half that? The year was 1968 – John Gorton was Prime Minister, our soldiers were still in Vietnam and it was the year that Kylie Minogue and Hugh Jackman were born.

But since then Australia’s population has sky rocketed. The population has doubled since 1968. We had just hit 12 million back then, and next month we will hit 24 million people nationally. In fact 1 in 3 Aussies have seen the population double in their lifetime.

The rate of marriages has dropped by over 40% since then, and in 1968 the average woman had 2.34 babies, compared to today’s 1.8.

Weekly earnings have also increased over the last 48 years. If we go back to 1968, the average hourly rate was $1.22, and that meant that the weekly wage was about $48.00 per week. Comparatively, today’s average earnings – if you put it in annual terms – is about $88,000 per year.

While wages have risen so too has the cost of living, and owning your own home is now 5 times more expensive than it was 48 years ago. Back in 1968 the average Sydney home would set you back $18,000, compared to the average Sydney median house price of $1 million today.

But the good news is that milk, butter and potatoes all cost less today. A litre of milk back then was 19 cents, in today’s dollars that’s actually $2.00, which is more expensive than a litre of milk today which is about $1.25.



ABOUT MARK MCCRINDLE

Mark McCrindle is a social researcher with an international following. He is recognised as a leader in tracking emerging issues and researching social trends. As an award winning social researcher and an engaging public speaker, Mark has appeared across many television networks and other media. He is a best-selling author, an influential thought leader, TEDx speaker and Principal of McCrindle Research. His advisory, communications and research company, McCrindle, count among its clients more than 100 of Australia’s largest companies and leading international brands.

DOWNLOAD MARK'S SPEAKING PACK HERE

Myth Busting and Fact Checking – Analysis of 5 statements on Australia’s Demographics

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

We've set out to do some myth-busting on Australian demographics just in time for Australia Day. From the "land of the long weekend" to "Australia as the sunburnt country", social researcher, Mark McCrindle reveals the facts on Australian demographics.

There are more New Zealanders living in Australia than in wellington

In 2014, 617,000 New Zealand born individuals were recorded to be living in Australia. New Zealand’s 3 largest cities by population are Auckland with over 1.4 million, Wellington (398,300) and Christchurch (381, 800). Therefore, there are far more New Zealanders that call Australia home than Wellington or Christchurch home.

Yet at the same time, 62,712 Australian-born individuals lived in New Zealand with approximately 20,000 Australian-born individuals living in Auckland.

In the month of April 2015, there was a net inflow of 100 migrants from Australia to New Zealand. This was the first month that NZ experienced a net gain of individuals from Australia since 1991.

Even though the growth of New Zealanders living in Australia has slowed, there are indeed more New Zealanders living in Australia than the entire populations of Wellington and Christchurch.

Australia, the land of the long weekend

While Australia is sometimes called the land of the long weekend, the number of public holidays in Australia still falls well behind many other countries around the world. India, has 21 public holidays a year, ranking them the country with the most public holidays. This is followed by South-East Asian countries which average between 11 and 15 public holidays a year. On the other end of the spectrum, the UK, Spain and Canada only have 8 public holidays a year. Furthermore, under Australian workplace law, full time employees are granted 20 annual leave days per year, while workers in Germany, France, Italy and Spain, Sweden, Denmark and Finland are given 30 days of leave.

In most years, Australia has 3 long weekends (Easter Monday, Labour day and Queens birthday), and while there are other countries with more holidays and annual leave, it is certainly part of our national culture that Australians make the most of these long weekend holidays offered throughout the year.

Australia as the ‘sunburnt country’

A ‘Sunburnt Country’ might be categorised by a hot and dry climate. While Australia has gained its reputation as the sunburnt country from the famous poem “My Country”, how does it fair among the other countries around the world?

With a scale from 1 to 11 for UV levels, Sydney has an average UV level of 6.2 over the year while Darwin has the highest average level of 10.75. On the other side of the world, cities like Los Angeles also recorded average UV levels of 6.3, but Paris only registered an average UV level of 3.5 over the year.

From 2011-15, Australia averaged 534mm of rainfall, but the US and UK recorded 715 and 1,220 mm of rainfall respectively.

Australia definitely has mid to high UV levels and a national rainfall far below most other developed nations. Therefore, the poetic term of Australia as the sunburnt country can be validated.

Do half of all marriages end up in divorce in Australia?

As of 2014, the number of marriages in Australia (121,197) was 9% more than the number of marriages 10 years ago. This accounted for a rate of 5.2 marriages per 1000 individuals however, over the same decade, the number of divorces in 2014 (46,498) declined by 4% since 1994, with only 2.0 divorces per 1000 individuals.

Therefore, the current divorce rate is just 38.4% of the current marriage rate and the divorce rate is falling faster than the marriage rate. Additionally, the length of those marriages that end is increasing, with the median duration to divorce being extended to 12 years compared to just 10.9-years in 1994.

Consequently, based on this analysis, it is not the case that half of all marriages end in divorce, but based on comparing national marriage and divorce rates, it can be estimated that around 1 in 3 marriages will end in divorce.  

Australia is a small business nation

The Australian Bureau of Statistics defines small businesses as those that employ between 5 and 19 people, and generally a term that encompasses micro-businesses, which employ between 1-4 people and non-employing businesses.

As of June 2014, 61% of all Australian businesses are non employing businesses. Of the employing businesses, 27% are microbusinesses, 10% are small businesses (5-19 employees), almost 2% are medium businesses (20-199 employees) and just under 1% are large businesses (200 or more).

Therefore, small businesses (including micro and non-employers) account for 98% of all actively trading businesses in Australia, there are almost 2.1 million of these small or micro enterprises, so Australia is indeed a small business nation. 


ABOUT MARK MCCRINDLE

Mark is an award-winning social researcher, best-selling author, TedX speaker and influential thought leader, and is regularly commissioned to deliver strategy and advice to the boards and executive committees of some of Australia’s leading organisations.

Mark’s understanding of the key social trends as well as his engaging communication style places him in high demand in the press, on radio and on television shows, such as Sunrise, Today, The Morning Show, ABC News 24 and A Current Affair.

His research firm counts amongst its clients more than 100 of Australia’s largest companies and his highly valued reports and infographics have developed his regard as a data scientist, demographer, futurist and social commentator.


DOWNLOAD MARK'S SPEAKING PACK HERE

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