Currently there are more than 720,000 indigenous Australians – around 3% of the total population. The indigenous population is increasing at 2.3% per annum- significantly faster than national population growth of around 1.4%. By 2026 the number of indigenous Australians will be almost 940,000 and in 2030 the number will exceed 1,000,000.
The proportion of the population that is indigenous varies significantly from less than 1% in some areas of the larger cities, to more than 70% in the Northern Territory- in Arnhem Land.
The largest proportion of Australia’s indigenous population lives in NSW (31%) followed by Queensland (28%) and then Western Australia (13%). While the Northern Territory has a higher proportion of indigenous people than any other state or territory, it is home to just 10% of the total indigenous population.
Based on the faster growth trends of the Queensland indigenous population (2.5%) compared to that of NSW (2.1%), by 2037, the state with the largest indigenous population will be Queensland (356,000). While all states and territories are experiencing natural increase of indigenous Australians through births, NSW is experiencing an annual net loss of more than 500 indigenous persons per year to other states while Queensland is experiencing an interstate net gain of around 300. Additionally the remote and very remote areas of Australia are losing almost 900 indigenous Australians each year as they move to the larger regional areas (600 person gain) and major cities (300 person gain).
For an in-depth visual look at Australia’s indigenous population simply click on this interactive map, zoom in to look at specific regions across Australia, or hover over an area to read the data.
Utilising the right tools and methods and analysing the data is just half of the research process. Because the goal is implementation, the findings need the skills of visualisation and communication. As researchers we understand the methods, but we’re also designers and communicators so we know how to present the findings in ways that will best engage.
Geomapping is a new tool we have and we will be releasing more information and blog pieces on this exciting new output.
Let us know via social media if you have any topics you would like to be geomapped!
Sydney is changing. It is growing, densifying and expanding. This McCrindle Research study surveyed 1,007 Sydneysiders in August of 2015 on their attitudes and sentiments towards the future of Sydney with regards to current population size and growth, infrastructure, planning, the house price boom and challenges moving forward.
Sydney is Australia’s largest city, and home to more than 1 in 5 Australians. More people live in Sydney than in the whole country of New Zealand, and its population is larger than the whole of Australia was a century ago. In addition to being Australia’s largest city, it is also the most culturally diverse with 2 in 5 Sydneysiders born overseas. While European settlement of Australia began in Sydney, the city now has connections closer to the region with 6 of the top 10 countries of birth of Sydneysiders born overseas being located in Asia.
63% of the current New South Wales population is living in Sydney, compared to 48% of Queensland’s population that lives in Brisbane. Western Sydney is growing faster than the rest of
Sydney currently, and the total population of the areas that comprise greater western Sydney (2.3 million) is larger than the nations of Fiji, Luxemburg, Iceland, Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga, Greenland, Lichtenstein and Nauru combined! By 2030, the population of Greater Western Sydney will be larger than the rest of Sydney, at almost 3 million.
Sydney is Australia’s largest city and was the first to hit 2 million, which it reached in 1959, followed by Melbourne in 1975, Brisbane in 2008 and Perth in 2014.
Based on current growth trends, Sydney will reach a population of 8 million in 2055, the same year that Australia’s 5th largest city Adelaide reaches a population of 2 million. In fact Sydney adds 1,400 people every 6 days which is more than the entire state of Tasmania adds in a year.
While Sydney will hit the 5 million milestone in the next year and 8 million in 2025, more than a third of Sydneysiders (37%) currently think that Sydney’s population is 3 million or less. Only one third of
Sydneysiders (35%) correctly identify Sydney’s population as being close to 5 million.
More than 4 in 5 Sydneysiders believe that the public transport, roads, hospitals and infrastructure is not keeping up with the population growth, with almost half (47%) saying it is nowhere near keeping up. Just 1 in 5 (18%) say that the infrastructure development is keeping up with the population growth.
Sydney’s House Price Boom
While Sydneysiders experience higher wages than the Australian average, the wage growth has not been keeping up with the house price growth. Four decades ago the average Sydney house price was 5 times the average annual full time earnings. Two decades later, house prices had outstripped earnings to be 6 times annual wages. Such has been the house price boom that today the average Sydney house price is more than 13 times the average annual full time earnings of $77,000.
Sydneysiders don’t believe the current house price growth is being driven by first home buyers or owner occupiers, but rather by investors. 2 in 5 (41%) Sydneysiders say that Australian property investors are driving the current house price boom, while 81% say that it is overseas property investors that are key to the price increases.
Clearly Sydney is an expensive place to live, and when Sydneysiders were asked what the greatest challenges of Sydney are, the top 2 responses were the cost of living (73%) and the cost of housing (59%). The third biggest challenge is the traffic and commute times (52%) followed by job / employment challenges (29%) and the pace and stress of life (29%).
These challenges for Sydneysiders are such that more than two thirds of local residents (66%) have considered moving out Sydney, with a quarter of all Sydneysiders (23%) saying they have seriously considered it.
The latest demographic data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics quantifies this by showing that Melbourne is now Australia’s fastest growing city, exceeding Sydney’s growth by more than 10,000 people per annum, and while Victoria and Queensland have consistently been experiencing net interstate migration gains for the last decades, New South Wales has over the same period been losing more people to other states than it has been gaining from other states.
Of the Eastern States, Victoria had a net interstate gain of 9,336 last year, Queensland’s gain was 5,598, while New South Wales over the same period had a net loss of 5,572.
From Sea Change and Tree Change to City Change
When Sydneysiders are considering exiting Sydney, a quarter of them are looking at a sea change or tree change within New South Wales, with another 1 in 20 (5%) considering moving to a rural or regional area interstate. However, more than half of all the would-be leavers (53%) are happy with city living, just not the Sydney life and are looking for another city interstate (32%) or in New South Wales (21%).
Sydney residents are not convinced about the direction in which their lifestyle is headed. Less than 1 in 5 (16%) say that Sydney is better than it was 5 years ago and will be even better in 5 years’ time. Overall, Sydney residents are pessimistic about the current realities and future forecasts. Almost two thirds (64%) say that Sydney is worse than it as 5 year ago, with an even larger percentage (66%) believing that it will be worse in 5 years’ time. In fact half of all Sydneysiders (50%) say that Sydney is worse than 5 years ago and will be even worse in 5 years’ time.
RESEARCH IN THE MEDIA
Watch Mark McCrindle on Channel 7 News speak about the research:
It’s official – almost everyone hates litter (99% state that it bothers them) however more than 1 in 4 (29%) confess to littering!
The main excuses offered are that there were no bins/overflowing bins, the litter was biodegradable, or that it was very small.
More than 8 in 10 Australians (83%) state that litter is a problem in their own community yet less than 1 in 10 Australians (7%) participated in an organised clean up event in the last year. And while almost 62% of Australians have witnessed someone litter in the last year, we are less likely to point it out.
KAB Chief Executive Officer Peter McLean has launched Keep Australia Beautiful Week with the theme, It’s Everyone’s Backyard, designed to prompt Australians to match their words with actions.
Sydney, the place many of us call home, is Australia’s economic powerhouse. We are adding almost 90,000 people to our city every single year, and the 5 fastest growing areas in New South Wales are all located in Sydney. Back 50 years ago Sydney had just hit 2 million people, we are going to finish next year at 5 million people.
Sydney is a fascinating and complex landscape where old ways and old attitudes are disappearing. We used to have a cringe factor of, “this part of the city is better than that part of the city” and people would perhaps be embarrassed if they weren’t closer to where the action was. That’s all changed. People in Greater Western Sydney embrace that as their moniker, proud of being a Westie.
And when it comes to work the CBD is no longer the cities undisputed top dog. Sydney is undergoing an opportunity revolution, with entrepreneurial hotspots sprouting up just about everywhere. You’ve got the media and communications hubs around Surry Hills and Ultimo, and high-tech emerging in areas of Parramatta and even in Penrith. It’s not all just happening in the CBD alone.
NSW also has the highest migration of any Australian state, and Sydney – a global city, receives most of this growth. In this city of diversity, the city’s newest citizens form new tribes in its oldest suburbs.
Sydney has many faces, but what binds us, the one thing we all have in common is this often complex, always beautiful, ever-changing city.
The Changing Face of Sydney; Urban Sprawl Goes Vertical
The Changing Face of Sydney; A closer look at Parramatta
The Changing Face of Sydney; Is the Sutherland Shire the new boom town?
The Changing Face of Sydney; The Changing Face of Liverpool
The Changing Face of Sydney; The big Development Flying Under the Rader
Q: Just wondering how many have first language of English?
A: Sydney is one of the most culturally diverse places in Australia. Almost two in three households have at least one parent born overseas, and China may soon overtake England as the country Sydneysiders born overseas were most likely born in.
Q: My children – aged 11 and eight – and I just watched the Changing Face of Sydney. They would like to know how our suburb, Loftus, has changed over the years. Or anything exciting you can tell them about our great suburb.
A: Well it is a fascinating suburb – home to far more families with kids than the state and national average. Averaging two children per household (well above the average) and with more stay-at-home parents than average. Earning more, volunteering more, and with a higher proportion of children than most Sydney suburbs – sounds like a nice, family-friendly place to live.
Q: What does the future of Blacktown look like as a part of the changing face of the western suburbs?
A: Blacktown has consistently been the fastest growing areas in the whole of NSW over the last decade. The Blacktown City area is home to more than 300,000 people, which means it is home to more people than the whole of the Northern Territory!
Q: We have just moved to Mosman from Adelaide, what can you tell me about Mosman, its demographic and its history?
A: Mosman is home to far more females than males - average age is 40, well above Sydney’s 36 and the residents’ earn more and work longer than the NSW average. Three in five of those in the labour force in Mosman work more than 40 hours per week. It is also home to twice the proportion of professionals and managers than the state average.
Q: What are your views on Sydney property growth in the short term? Is this boom likely to continue? NSW future infrastructure projects are encouraged by this strong stamp. What would be the result if the interest rates increase?
A: Yes Sydney’s property prices are no bubble. They are underpinned by more demand (population growth) than supply (new home builds). Not only is Sydney growing around 85,000 people per year, but households are getting smaller so the housing demand is even outstripping population growth. However, Sydney prices will no doubt plateau at some point, as they have before.
Q: Which suburbs have big potential for growth? Where will be more infrastructure developments?
A: Greater Western Sydney is where the population growth is and where there will be a lot of new infrastructure over the decades ahead. Plus prices are beginning from a lower base than the east. And keep in mind that by 2032 Western Sydney will be larger than the rest of Sydney (2.9m compared to 2.7m).
Q: My partner and I are planning to buy a house. What is the quietest place in Sydney?
A: The quiet suburbs on the urban fringes – Shanes Park, Cranebrook, Marsden Park, Badgery’s Creek – are acreage at the moment but will be development central in a few years. So the quiet may just be temporary.
Q: Where is the best place to invest, which suburb?
A: Really depends on budget and also having a long-term view. Suburbs change: Redfern, Balmain, Newtown, Campberdown were once not considered desirable suburbs and are now very expensive. So it is good to look at population growth trends and emerging infrastructure. A suburb not “hot” at the moment if it is in Sydney will be a winner long term.
Q: What are the reasons for different ethnicities to settle in the respective suburbs? (Chinese in Hurstville and Chatswood, British in Manly, etc.)
A: Often it is where they have connection/family and so various suburbs end up with strong ethnicities. For example, traditionally Greeks settled in Kogarah, many from Vietnam called Cabramatta home and more recently a strong connection of those from India to Harris Park.
Q: What proportion of the Hills district is evangelical and also now the Shire?
A: The ABS census data shows religion by denomination and it shows that for example the Hills have less than 19 per cent while the Shire has more than 25 per cent Anglicans.
As Australia’s social researchers, we take the pulse of the nation. We research communities. We survey society. We analyse the trends. And we communicate the findings.
Every Tuesday we release a trend about Australia for #TuesdayTrend. Here are some of our recent #TuesdayTrends, highlighting fun facts about Australia. Be sure to follow, share and interact with us on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook.
ABOUT RESEARCH VISUALISATION
In a world of big data- we’re for visual data. We believe in the democratisation of information- that research should be accessible to everyone not just to the stats junkies. We’re passionate about turning tables into visuals, data into videos and reports into presentations. As researchers, we understand the methods but we’re also designers and we know what will communicate, and how to best engage. We’re in the business of making you look good and your data make sense.
For more information, please get in touch – we’d love to hear from you:
The social, generational, economic and demographic trends impacting Hornsby Shire are creating not only new challenges but great opportunities. Unprecedented change can sometimes lead to change fatigue where the response can be to become worried about change, or equally it can lead to change apathy which can create an indifference to change. However by understanding the emerging trends, we can be more prepared for the changes and so rather than becoming defensive or blasé we can respond to the shifts, influence the trends and shape the future.
Hornsby Shire Council: A Shire of Opportunity, outlines ten of the top trends that are redefining the Hornsby LGA and shaping the future of this community. We have been pleased to assist Hornsby Shire Council in conducting this analysis and the trends shaping the region.
The top 10 trends for Hornsby Shire are:
Growing population, increasing densification
Ageing population, transitioning generations
Educational attainment, professional employment
Entrepreneurship for small and home-based businesses
Property ownership and investment growth
Stable workforce, lower unemployment
Mobile lifestyle enabled though public transport and cars
Not-for-profit organisations are invited to participate in the Australian Community Trends Report, a national, comprehensive research study of the sector, conducted by McCrindle and R2L & Associates.
This inaugural study will form the basis for a longitudinal study which will be conducted annual and provide a detailed analysis of the effectiveness, engagement and awareness of the not-for-profit sector. It will help not-for-profit organisations understand the Australian community – the emerging trends, the giving landscape and the current and emerging supporter segments. The Australian Community Trends Report will provide a clear analysis of the social context in which the not-for-profit sector is operating.
The snapshot of the external environment, the visibility of the community attitudes and perceptions, supporter engagement and satisfaction will be ascertained through a series of quantitative surveys and qualitative focus groups. The output will be visual, strategic and communicated through key models and instruments developed specifically for this Australian Community Trends Study. These models and instruments have been explained below.
The Giving Sentiment Matrix segments Australians and their preferred focus from a local versus global perspective, as well as the charitable purpose with which they best resonate, from advocacy and education to direct action. The matrix plots and quantifies Australians based on the national survey and overlays on these segments the positioning of Australia’s diverse charities.
It will identify 4 main segments which will be quantified and defined such as:
Blocker-Enabler Giving Grid
The Blocker-Enabler Giving Grid is a strategic communications tool for Australian not-for-profits to help them understand the blockers to giving and enablers which facilitate giving by Australians. These blockers and enablers developed through both the quant and qual phases of the Australian Community Trends Study are classified based on the emotional practical nature of them.
Net Promoter Score (NPS)
The best global, single measure, cross-industry comparable tool is the Net Promoter Score (NPS). The Australian NFP sector does not yet have an industry wide NPS against which individual charities can benchmark. This industry NPS will mean that individual organisations will now be able to see their score in the context of the overall sector rather than comparing to other industries.
Net Repeater Score (NRS)
The Net Repeater Score (NRS) is an effective measure of post-choice satisfaction and a powerful predictor of re-engagement. It supplements the NPS and is a more pure measure of individual engagement and overcomes the personality influences of promoter measures.
Net Culture Score (NCS)
One of the key assets of Australia’s NFP sector is the employer brand is the employer brand and rewarding workplace culture which is so attractive to the emerging generations of employees and volunteers. The Net Culture Score (NCS) will highlight the staff satisfaction and employee engagement which exists across the sector and which will provide an industry wide score for employer brand benchmarking purposes.
Australian Charities Leaders Snapshot
This scenario planning instrument analyses the key local and global trends impacting the Australian NFP sector. It is an environmental scan based on the DESTEL tool (Demographic, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legislative trends). Based on the perspective of the key leaders in the sector, it provides a forecast of the strategic trends that have significant impact and probability measures.
The engagement funnel analyses the entrance points Australians have with NFPs. It measures the proportion who connect through the mass advertising and communications campaigns compared to those who resonate around the purposes and cause and those who connect with the organisational brand or charity. It analyses both the interactions that facilitate engagement and those that set this process back. It also helps show how those connected with a charity or organisation can be reactivated to connect with specific causes and campaigns.
McCrindle Participation Scale
The participation Scale tracks the journey of Australians who have an awareness of a charity. It defines the transition points from reluctancy and apathy through the stage of passivity to activity and advocacy. It defines the timeframes of these transitions, methods to best create movement along this scale and acts as a measure for organisations to track where their audience currently sits and how to further transition them.
It seems there is more armchair diagnosing of narcissism and calling people “narcissists” than ever before and social media is often the trigger of it and takes the blame. Narcissistic Personality Disorder is defined by the symptoms of behaviours of grandiosity and lack of self-awareness, an abnormal need for admiration, and often a lack of empathy toward others. While even a cursory look at one’s social media feed will show posts which seem to promote (and perhaps exaggerate) achievements and certainly the visual aspects of social media are preoccupied with appearance, beauty, status and success. While celebrity news and popular culture has for some time been permeated with these characteristics, this last decade has offered celebrity in the suburbs where everyone on YouTube can “broadcast yourself”, personal websites and blogs are de jure, and to exist without social media is seemingly to not exist at all.
Almost two and a half millennia ago Socrates wrote that “to do is to be” while now it seems that “to tweet is to be”. Such is the popularity of such communication platforms, if social media sites were countries, Facebook would be the world’s largest country with more active accounts than there are people in China. Twitter would rank 4th with twice the “population” of the USA and Instagram would round out the Top 10. While the speed of adoption of these communication platforms has been unprecedented- all of this occurring in less than a decade, the reasons for the take-up are varied. Certainly much social media activity is push-communication, with users wanting to publicise their latest activities and status, for many social media use is a genuine attempt to connect, to engage and to listen. However our latest research shows this latter group comprises just 1 in 5 social media users: the contributors who participate via social media as in any community- to share and participate, speak and listen, connect and contribute. Such are these times that the larger proportion of social media users- almost 4 in 5 are consumers, who largely use social media as an update channel to see what others are up to, and when posting something themselves, it is more broadcast and generic than personal and connective.
Most behavioural experts agree that narcissism is a condition not of biology but society- it is the social context not the genetic factors that are causal. In a world of always-connected, app-ready, mobile device saturated living, where every phone is a camera and we are ever just a few clicks away from posting our next contribution it is clear that social media has created an environment conducive to the growth of narcissism. However the apparent rise of narcissism may be more a factor of social media highlighting its existence and narcissistic-type behaviours rather than of itself creating more narcissism. Indeed some of the negative press social media receives is unwarranted. Selfies are given as the ultimate sign of narcissistic times, and combined with today’s must-have item- the selfie stick, an indicator of self-obsession. However most selfies are more “groupies” – not photos of oneself by oneself, but of a group and sent to other friends. Many (though not all) selfies are more about sharing a life journey rather than an unashamed exercise in self-promotion. So too the “status update”, the Instagram account and the personal blog: while such musing and sharing in our grandparents era was kept to a personal journal or limited to a family photo album, the current approach is definitely more public but most of it is a long way from fitting the pure definition of narcissistic grandiosity and an overwhelming need for admiration. In fact the Australian characteristics of keeping things “fair dinkum” and “not blowing your own trumpet” are still part of the local approach. The tall poppy syndrome remains a powerful social norm to ensure that no one gets “too big for his boots” or is “putting on airs”. The Australian values of community mindedness and looking out for each other ensure that empathy remains strong and narcissism is kept at bay- even this great screen age.
Organisations must respond to the times to remain relevant amidst significant demographic shifts, cultural change, and generational transitions.
Scouts Australia is the nation’s largest youth organisation with a membership of 52,000 youth members. The not-for-profit recently commissioned McCrindle to guide the direction of a major Youth Program Review (YPR) through a three-phase project, helping Scouts to engage with the needs and desires of Australian families, their perceptions of Scouting, and what families are looking for in a contemporary youth organisation.
Engaging Stakeholders for Strategic Organisational Change
Through conducting nation-wide research, Scouts Australia sought to determine future directions and develop a detailed understanding of the wider community to:
Ensure the values of Scouts Australia engage with those of 21st Century Australia
Create a program that meets the needs of their appropriate youth target market
As part of the research, a number of methodologies and tools were utilised:
Awareness and Perception Brand Testing: Testing the perceptions, attitudes, awareness of Australians and Scouting families towards Scouting.
Competitor Analysis: Defining how the Scouts Australia brand is perceived in comparison to other Australian youth development, extracurricular, and sport organisations.
Segmentation Analysis: Comparing Scouts families with Australian families nationally and differences in their values for Australian youth.
Demographic Forecasting & Trends Analysis: Understanding the factors that shape and influence Generation Z from a demographic and social trends perspective.
Phase 1 provided qualitative insights through a series of focus groups with current and former Scouts members and Scouting parents, testing Scouting’s current landscape and the changes needed in the program, thus setting the foundation for the Phase 2 and Phase 3 research.
Phase 2 sought to define the needs and desires of Australian families for a national youth program through a comprehensive national study of 1,078 Australian parents with children aged 6 to 18, asking parents about their values and what a youth program should look like for a 21st century Australia. These results were compared to the perspectives of 1,858 Scouts parents.
Phase 3 featured a demographic and social trends scoping study on Generation Z and Generation Alpha incorporating McCrindle data, Australian Bureau of Statistics data, and trend analysis from McCrindle’s generational experts.
The McCrindle team visualised and presented the results of all three phases at national and state executive meetings throughout 2014 to engage key stakeholders with the strategic changes required to shape the new Scouts program.
The Scouts Australia YPR team is using the research as a key engagement piece with Scouts members and their families. The results have led to significant discussions among members and decision-makers on what it could look like to provide a highly sought after youth program for 21st century Gen Zs.
“One chief commissioner suggested this is the best research we have ever completed. Your work has assisted in giving credibility to the YPR and strengthening the belief of others for the need to have the YPR.” – Scouts
SECTOR-WIDE NOT-FOR-PROFIT STUDY
In 2015, McCrindle is conducting a sector-wides study for Australian not-for-profit organisations and charities entitled the Australian Community Trends Report. Organisations are invited to participate and sign up by 30 June, 2015.
MCCRINDLE RESEARCH SOLUTIONS
At McCrindle we are engaged by some of the leading brands and most effective organisations across Australia and internationally to help them understand the ever-changing external environment in which they operate and to assist them in identifying and responding to the key trends. See our Research Pack for more information on our services.
Our social research and trends analysis consistently highlights the speed, scale and scope of change. Only occasionally in history do massive demographic shifts combined with rapid social change, huge generational transitions and ongoing technology trends so that within the span of a decade, society altogether alters. Today we are in the midst of one such transformative decade- which will take us to 2020. Our partners in the Australian Community Trends Report are the team at R2L and their Principal John Rose here provides his top 7 tips for not-for-profit organisations.
Speak to your context
Understand your organisation’s key client segments and their values, knowledge and concerns.
Be seen and known
Position your organisation to be recognised as thought-leaders, influencers, and innovators.
Inspire and engage
Provide a positive experience for donors, clients and beneficiaries so that they not only feel part of your organisation, but part of the issue that your organisation supports.
Finesse, fine-tune and focus
Focus on the important messages and discard what is not essential.
Communicate the need, and plan for the long-term
Finance the future, don’t just fundraise for the now but set up the financial future of your organisation.
Act as a leader
Lead not only your team, but your cause and your stakeholder community.
Be the agent of change
Be accountable and demonstrate the change that your organisation is making.
Not-for-profit organisations are invited to take part in the Australian Community Trends Report.
For more information about the study please click here or contact Kirsten Brewer on (02) 8824 3422 or email@example.com